Southern Europe faces rate hike with investment far from pre

The post-pandemic recovery of the industrial and service sectors it has been much more intense in the countries of southern Europe than in the Eurozone as a whole. However, the energy crisis aggravated by the invasion of Ukraine, the inflation rally or the persistent bottlenecks in some supply chains, together with the abrupt rise in interest rates to tackle the rise in the cost of living, have caused a slowdown in economic activity since the third quarter.

The disadvantage that this situation entails for Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece is that they have not yet recovered the levels of investment prior to the last financial crisis (the investment/GDP ratio would still be around 3.5 points below that recorded in 2007). The lack of capital investment or CAPEX (the money companies invest in physical assets) has been accompanied by subdued productivity growth, especially in Greece and Italy.

Although this weakening of the economy may cause a new slowdown in this variable, the European fiscal programs -both the Next Generation Funds such as the REPowerEU- and the strong decrease in private debt offer a more benign framework for capital spending, according to a Goldman Sachs report to which ‘La Información’ has had access. “To achieve sustained growth in the long term, southern Europe must close the investment gap with the euro area, which stands at around 2.5% of GDP, while Greece lags even further behind,” they warn. from US investment bank.

Specifically, the recovery funds will allocate an amount greater than 3% of GDP to investment; the Commission has guaranteed an additional €40 billion in investments for energy saving technology (REPowerEU) and there is the possibility of reallocating the excess lending capacity in the Recovery Fund, which could expand fiscal support for investment by another 220,000 million (the equivalent of 1.5% of EU GDP) over the next three years. In this last point some 100,000 million additional financing is contemplated for the countries of southern Europe.

In the early 2000s, southern Europe enjoyed above-average capital spending in all countries – with the exception of Italy. Meanwhile, today the Eurozone as a whole has almost recovered the level of investment in relation to GDP that it had before the world financial crisis, contrary to what happens with the southernmost countries of the region. The lack of investment among the southern states has been accompanied by moderate productivity growth in Greece and Italy, “while the highest increased productivity in Portugal and Spain It has been possible thanks to a faster accumulation of capital”, they point out from the entity.

Accelerate investment to ensure future growth

Given the expectation that the European Central Bank keep raising interest rates in the coming months And as the upward pressure that it has already been applying is slowly but steadily passing through to debt costs, “Southern European countries face a special urgency to accelerate investment and ensure future growth.” points out the American firm. Experience from the financial crisis revealed how important the composition, as well as the size, of fiscal consolidation is.

While Greece, Portugal and Italy increased their primary balances during the 2010s, the growth profiles remained very different. Italy became the laggard country in the region in terms of growth, while Spain, the country with the lowest primary balances in the region during the same period, enjoyed its strongest growth results until the Covid-induced recession. These differences in the progress of their economy also made it more difficult for some to keep the debt-to-GDP ratio at bay.

In Greece, Portugal and Spain, the decline in the cost of debt since the end of the sovereign crisis was combined with a stronger growth momentum from the mid-2010s. This allowed debt-to-GDP ratios to fall significantly both in the Portuguese and Spanish cases. In Italy, by contrast, real growth slowed so much that it offset the benefits of lower borrowing costs, and sovereign debt consolidation was rather limited.

The effect of interest rates at 3.5%

At Goldman Sachs, they expect the ECB’s cycle of increases to continue until the official rates reach 3.25% (compared to the 3% previously calculated). With this perspective, they contemplate that the yield curves of the sovereign bonds of Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece move upwards and flatten in all countries, with the Italian front end (1 year) revaluing by more than 200 basis points and the 10-year yield gaining almost 150 basis points in 2025.

Face to By 2026, the average cost of debt could easily reach levels similar to those of the early 2010s, with increases ranging from 15 basis points in Greece to almost 90 basis points in Italy. “In line with the experience gained after the sovereign debt crisis, and in light of debt sustainability relative to GDP, current market prices make it particularly urgent for southern Europe to close the investment gap and ensure future growth taking advantage of the available combination of European fiscal policies”, warn from the investment bank.