The pollster: “The axis between the three center-right parties as a function of the government crisis that ousted Draghi is very close to 50%. In single-member colleges these numbers can rise even more ”. And the Democratic Party? “By permanently abandoning the 5 Star Movement, he could act as a mediator between those who want and those who do not want Di Maio”
There is a certain discontent in one part of the forced electorate. Perhaps because many would not have expected that Come on Italy and its leader Silvio Berlusconione of the earliest supporters of Mario Draghi, made themselves participate in the sinking of the executive. In deference to an increasingly solid alliance especially with the Lega di Matteo Salvini. Electorally, it is still unknown how much the defections of Brunette And Gelmini may weigh on the party. “But it is quite clear that the center-right, if it were to present itself united, especially in the single-member constituencies, would make the exploit.” The pollster is convinced of this Nicola Piepoli with which we have tried to prefigure the scenario that will take shape between now and 25 September.
Is Forza Italia in liquefaction?
Forza Italia is a party in “senescence”, but which enjoys a formidable organizer on which the Knight will surely rely to strengthen the ranks.
And who would it be?
But there were defections though. And they have been “excellent”.
Yes, but I think it was expected that some pawns would be left behind after the decision taken in the Senate the other day. And frankly I do not think that the release of Gelmini, Brunetta and Cangini can cause an electoral hemorrhage. Then, Tajani will certainly not be ‘intimidated’ by the release of some prima donna.
So, do you already take a center-right victory for granted on 25 September?
No, I say, however, that the axis that has been strengthened between the three center-right parties as a function of the government crisis that ousted Draghi is very close to 50%. Not only that, in single-member colleges these numbers can rise even more.
On the other hand, the Democratic Party is dealing with a 5-Star Movement that is guilty of draghicide. What will happen?
The problem of the Democratic Party is neither the pentastellati nor the left, but the center. Potentially, the conglomeration of small parties that gravitate to the center can be worth something like 40%, which is the electoral perimeter of the old DC. So it is possible that it is the Democratic Party to be incorporated by the center and not vice versa.
It is difficult to think of a single container that has Calenda, Renzi, Di Maio and the Toti area inside.
It is not to be excluded, however, given that, for example, Di Maio has a very centrist dialectic and seems to address that constituency. He is almost more in the center of Calenda, and that is why he has decided to bring the governing part of the 5 Star Movement as a dowry.
A possible scenario would therefore also be that of a government with the Democratic Party and the maxi container of the center?
Of course, the Democratic Party, definitively abandoning the 5 Star Movement, could act as a mediator between those who want and those who do not want Di Maio and make everyone run in the same direction as an alternative to the center-right.