Conte’s “masterpiece” is to have obtained three Tafazzian results with a single move, that is, by pulling the trust of the M5s under Prime Minister Draghi’s feet, a second before this brought social reforms to Italians in debt of oxygen. What results? He deals a very hard blow to the already wasted alliance with the Democratic Party, weakening the entire front of the center-left; “gives” the victory in the next elections to the center-right which, with this electoral law, could also obtain a very large victory. All this without recovering a point of consensus. He tells it to Today the political scientist and former coordinator of the Cattaneo Institute Marco Valbruzzi.
“The goal of the center-right is to win and the prospects are high because the electorate is much more united than the leaders. There are divisions between parties but the electorate is compact and in fact, in recent years, it has moved without too many problems, from Forza Italia to Lega and then to Fratelli d’Italia but always remaining within that world. And if the perspective of the center-right is to go to the vote, as it seems from the statements of the leaders, the current situation is very favorable to them because, on the other side , there is a center-left as crazy as mayonnaise: the Democratic Party risks running alone, as well as the renamed “Conte party” with 5 stars; there will presumably be a block of centrists that will go alone and therefore, with the current one, bad electoral law, in every single-member constituency on the left we will have a myriad of parties (ni) and on the other side a coalition united by the vote. If we think that in the north the League is still very rooted and in the center-south Fdi is becoming dominant, the centrode stra can really get a very large majority, almost 60% “.
Therefore, especially in light of the current government crisis opened by the 5 Star Movement, the Berlusconi – Salvini – Meloni axis would easily win. But then you get to the government and nobody wins if you think in terms of a party because you have to govern in the company of those who represent different ways of seeing foreign and domestic politics. “The issue of governability comes at a later time and it is clear that, from this perspective, nobody wins – continues Valbruzzi – but, for there to be a winning party, we should no longer be in Italy but in Great Britain or France and there too. they have their problems. It is true that there are internal problems in the center-right and there are at least two: the attitude of skepticism towards the European Union, at a time when Italy is experiencing a complex moment on the economic level, with uneasy markets, and the Pnrr still has to be implemented; and then the leadership, which is now under the carpet because victory seems within reach, but which sooner or later will reappear. more if they win with such a large majority “.
The numbers that the center-right in Parliament can reach with the rosatellum
In fact, with the Rosatellum there are single-member constituencies: 147 in the Chamber and 74 in the Senate, which correspond to polling stations for which the allied parties will have to agree on the candidate to present. It means that, before the vote, Salvini and Meloni on the one hand, as well as Letta and Conte on the other, will have to sit around a table and clash over the division of 221 total colleges. There will be two hot tables but at least the first one is not likely to jump. Thus the center-right can take “in the Chamber at least 235 seats out of 400, mostly from the single-member constituencies but also from the proportional with Meloni first party according to the polls. – The policy expert continues – That’s why Salvini and Berlusconi I don’t think they threw away the idea of a federation, a pre-electoral alliance to contain the rise of Giorgia Meloni “. The same goes for the Senate, where the center-right aspires to 115, even 120 seats out of 200.
Possible scenario? Yes, only if the center-left splits, however, and today, with the government crisis opened by Conte, it seems that the rift has become irremediable. Therefore the choice of the former prime minister would pave the way for the victory of the center-right. “More: to an extra-large victory of the center – underlines Valbruzzi – It is Conte’s political masterpiece, which also risks making the M5s disappear completely, first as a parliamentary group and then as a political group”.
All this if we take for granted the placing of a tombstone on the Pd-M5s axis. What if it isn’t so? “At that point there could be a stalemate, a tie in the two chambers with narrow majorities. The safety car could also return: a presidential government hypothesis, with Draghi in pole position”.
What’s really behind the government crisis
It is also to avoid such a scenario at all costs that the left are pushing for a proportional reform of the electoral law. “It would be of benefit to Italy and would do ideological cleansing, so that each party would present itself with its own symbol and its own program. But, precisely because this is what the country needs, it will not be taken into consideration”. There is also the remote possibility of a proportional with a majority premium, but in this Parliament it has no hope of approval.
In the end, the center-right seems to have already put a mortgage on the next political elections in 2023. It will only be necessary to maintain the status quo. Giuseppe Conte is thinking about giving the coup de grace. Yet he is convinced of regaining consensus. What else should it do? Immolate the result of the next elections on the altar of Mario Draghi? “Yes, – Professor Marco Valbruzzi concludes with determination – The consensus is already at a minimum. It was convenient for him to remain in government by imposing a social agenda. Instead, he slipped into a cul-de-sac: by splitting the Movement, he split the ‘alliance with the Democratic Party and has opened up grasslands for the center-right. And no, it will not recover consensus like this. This is the idea of some of his bad advisors, convinced that they will gain two or three percentage points with a summer crisis but it is pure fantasy. Conte is succeeded in a unique masterpiece. Perverse but unique “.