Elections: Pd and Fratelli d’Italia paired with 23% Coalitions, the center

The resignation of Prime Minister Mario Draghi and the early end of the legislature represented a bolt from the blue for many Italians, most of whom do not follow political events, or do so casually, especially during the summer period, when struggling with holiday programs and usually think of something else. There government crisis had a positive effect on the index of approval of the executive and the premier who have registered a 3-point increase compared to last month, passing respectively from 55 to 58 and from 59 to 62, very high values ​​just under a year and a half after taking office. It should be emphasized that the positive ratings concerning Dragons prevail between all electorates, albeit with very different values: from 92 of the dem, to 53 of the pentastellati, passing from 77 of the Forza Italia voters, to 61 of those of the Lega; even among the ranks of the Brothers of Italy, the main opposition party, there is a positive index (54) while opinions are divided among the abstentionists and the approval rating is 50. Therefore, it is a sort of from tribute to the resigning premier whose work in an extremely complex period of the life of the country was appreciated.

Who gains and who loses consent from the government crisis and the early closure of the legislature? Among the parties they increase Brothers of Italy (+ 3.3%) And Democratic party (+ 2.4%), as they retreat League (-1.5%), 5 Star Movement And Come on Italy (both -0.8%) among the main political forces, and among the minor ones the movement of Luigi Di Maio, Together for the future (-1%), And Italexit (-0.9%). The ranking sees the party of Giorgia Meloni (23.3%) and the Pd (23.2%), spaced by only one decimal and at the highest levels recorded by the first and since the beginning of the legislature the second; following League (13.5%), 5 Star Movement (11.3%) And Come on Italy (9%). Among others, the federation crosses the threshold Action / + Europe (3.6%), the alliance between Italian left and the Greens (3.4%) And Italexit (3.1%). With the announcement of the date of the elections, the share of abstentionists and undecided fell by almost two points, today at 40.6%. The failure of the possible alliance between the Democratic Party and the 5 Star Movement following the role assumed by the pentastellati in bringing about the end of the Draghi government, assigns a net benefit at the center-right coalition on that of center left (45.8% to 33%).

The surveys conducted in the aftermath of the decision of the President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella to terminate the legislature early and going to the elections showed that the majority relative of Italians (42%) attributes the major ones responsibility for the crisis to the 5 Star Movement, while 18% of the opinion that the crisis arose from the will of Lega and Forza Italia to withdraw from the majority to go to elections and 25% (with much higher peaks among the voters of the Lega, Forza Italia and the Movimento 5 Stelle) attributes the greater responsibility to Draghi who showed little inclination to seek a compromise, accepting the demands of the dissident parties. He is not surprised, therefore, that With you both the leader most penalized in terms of satisfaction: he drops to sixth place in the ranking he had led for a long time and his index drops by 6 points (from 31 to 25). Di Maio also fell sharply (-5 points), who in the previous month had benefited from the decision to leave the 5 Star Movement, obtaining consensus from the voters furthest away from the force of which he was the political leader. The other leaders, with a few exceptions, score variations of a single point.

In conclusion, today’s poll captures a clear advantage of the center-right, but the opinions and voting orientations of the Italians will have to be consolidated, also in relation to the configuration of the alignments in the field and their political proposals. There are many open questions, just think of the voters from center right that they appreciate Draghi and regret the fall of the government led by him (for example, the entrepreneurs and artisans of the northern regions): how will they behave? Will they confirm the vote to the party they feel closest to or will they abstain, or will they still choose a party from the opposing camp that intends to give continuity to the action of the Draghi government? And in the opposing camp is there a force capable of ferrying this electorate? And will the Forza Italia personalities who have made the painful decision to leave their party find a new subject to join and will they be able to count on an adequate electoral following? And, again, what appearance will the opposing side of the center-right have? Judging by the skirmishes of recent days between declarations of inclusion and exclusion of this or that leader or political force, seasoned with bright tones that appear little in tune with what one would expect in the constitutive phase of a coalition, one gets the impression that its composition and positioning are not yet clear, while the deadline for the presentation of the lists is approaching. And that trajectory will have the 5 Star Movement who will show up outside the coalitions? Promote a more left-leaning coalition like the one set up by Jean-Luc Mlenchon in France? In short, there are many open questions and the month of August traditionally does not warm the hearts of citizens for politics, so the election campaign true will last just over three weeks. But we must not forget that in 2018 one in four voters decided who to vote for in the 7 days before the election date. An election campaign and a last minute vote await us.

@NPagnoncelli

Elections: Pd and Fratelli d’Italia paired with 23% Coalitions, the center-right dominates