The recession can be avoided. It would be enough to have the accounts in order. The usual analysis by Ferruccio de Bortoli in L’Economia on newsstands tomorrow for free with Corriere della Sera starts from this consideration. Italy victim of statistical bias? The legitimate doubt. Also this time we expected a minus sign in front of the gross domestic product compared to the previous quarter and instead we had a + 0.5%. In recent years, Italy has been the country with the highest correction differential between estimates and actual figures of the main economic indicators. But prudence is a must, given the debt that continues to rise: + 6% in six months. The better than expected results, according to Istat, could come from services which represent 20% of GDP.
Our economy – remembers de Bortoli – is also drugged by subsidies and bonuses. Better not forget it: the positive observation of the unexpected, even if not yet measured, degree of resilience of the economy – thanks to that 20% of services, trade and tourism that is growing – it must not diminish the urgency to bend the ratio between debt and GDP. Bringing the primary balance back into balance (this year negative by 1.7%) would be the best possible investment. The cover story dedicated to Giuseppe Castagna, CEO of the Banco Bpm group who tells his anti-crisis recipe: learn from the pandemic and extend the moratoriums.
In the capital of Banco Bpm, behind the French Crdit Agricole who have 10 per cent, a nucleus of Italian shareholders (foundations and professional funds) is forming, aiming to rebalance the weights. Today they have 8.5 percent, but they will still grow. The rise of Monte dei Paschi was complex – explains Castagna – they were good and now they have to concentrate on the industrial plan to give value to the bank. We? We will not make acquisitions. The section dedicated to companies is very rich, starting with the Florence group, the Tuscan company promoted by Trapani, Pesenti and Cdp led by Attila Kiss and aggregates the luxury companies. The latest purchase was Ideal Blu from Urbania, specialized in denim.
At Venchi, on the other hand, they are thinking of expanding the boundaries of the business. The Piedmontese company arrived in Qatar, is about to open in France, Malaysian and Australia. It wants to double its stores in three years and has just welcomed 38 executives into the shareholder base. It works and we will do it again, says ceo Daniele Ferrero. Meanwhile, the foreign family offices and Andrea Guerra rise in the capital, while the Oniro group of high-end furniture and interior design (formerly Jumbo group) grows abroad and in the residential sector. Fly the Middle East market, with projects together with Damac. CEO Brambilla announces a new acquisition by the end of the year, and finally in the Assets section, the comparison between rental houses and BTPs. A government bond that lasts eight years, which is the same as a lease, now offers 4%. To get more with brick, you need to invest in less central areas. Milan, Rome Naples: where to aim.
Does the recession come yes or no? Italy can avoid it if it controls debt and spending