11/16/2022 –
Considering the interannual variation of October 2022, Argentina (88%) and Turkey (85.5%) stand out in the sample considered. Then follows a second group of four countries with inflation above 20% year-on-year (Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia and Hungary).
The objective of this analysis is to measure what is happening with inflation (in this case including October 2022) in forty countries around the world: Germany, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Belgium, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Korea, Denmark, Slovenia, Spain, the United States, Estonia, Finland, France, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Norway, the Netherlands, Paraguay, Peru, Poland, Portugal, Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and Uruguay.
The monthly dynamics of inflation Analyzing the last six months, the main fact that stands out is an international average inflation stabilized in values around 0.7%, after a maximum in June (0.9%). The median value of the surveyed countries was 0.7 in October. If you look at inflation in the country that is in the 25th percentile, you can see a slight acceleration in the last quarter. Inflation in the last four months was 0.4%, 0.0%, 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively. Conversely, the country that is in the 75th percentile had a decline. Inflation in the last four months was 1.2%, 0.9%, 1.4% and 1.1%, respectively. Inflation in Argentina reached 7.4% monthly in July, 7.0% in August, 6.2% in September and 6.3% in October. The gap between Argentine monthly inflation and the median of the sample considered was 5.6 percentage points in October, higher than in September. To meet the goal of 95% year-on-year of the budget, in November and December average monthly inflation should be 5.1%. With the October data, Argentina consolidates an average annual inflation of 55.9% in the last four years. Among the countries, it stands out that, although the majority had positive monthly inflation, four countries had negative inflation: Indonesia, Estonia, Greece and the Czech Republic. For their part, Uruguay, Sweden, Saudi Arabia, China and Switzerland had monthly inflation of less than 0.3% (graph 2). Interannual inflation for October 2022 Considering the interannual variation for October 2022, Argentina (88%) and Turkey (85.5%) stand out in the sample considered.
Then follows a second group of four countries with inflation above 20% year-on-year (Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia and Hungary). At the other extreme, Switzerland, Saudi Arabia, China and Bolivia registered year-on-year inflation of 3% or less (graph 3). If the variation of the last two quarters is considered, it can be seen that: Quarterly inflation increases in fifteen countries and decreases in twenty-five. Main countries where it accelerates: The Netherlands (4.0pp, from 1.5% to 5.5%), Luxembourg, Hungary, Italy and Argentina (1.9pp, from 18.8% to 20.7%) . Main countries where it slowed down: Estonia (-5.2 pp), Slovenia (-6.0 pp) and Latvia (-6.0 pp).